Everything posted by Kevin C
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Nicole Auerbach Texas CFP chances
Actions say different.
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Playoff Chances??
We didn't just beat OU, we dominated them. Then we dominated A&M in the final 30 mins 24-7, a team that many were arguing is #1 going into the game. I never thought A&M was better than #3 but the reality is we beat 3 teams who were all ranked top 10 at the time we played them. No-one has won 3 top 10 games in past 5 years. Committee putting way too much emphasis on 2 losses to teams ranked #1 and #3 in country. At most, those both should count as .5 compared to losses by Miami (2 unranked teams). Need to put much more emphasis on great wins.
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Nicole Auerbach Texas CFP chances
Disagree. It would diminish their biggest win of the year (against Georgia) if they lose in the SEC championship. Bama lost to OU, Texas beat OU. Both would have 3 losses. Bama played a cupcake non-conf schedule (no opponents in the Top 25). Texas played #1 team in the country closer than any other opponent all year. Texas beat 3 teams currently in the Top 15. Bama beat 2 teams in the Top 15 (Georgia and Vanderbilt). Committee left out Georgia 2 years ago after they lost to Bama in the Conf Championship and Georgia was undefeated going into the Conf Championship game. We need to stop pretending you can't drop out of the playoffs due to conf championship loss. It's already happened multiple times in the past and should happen this year, especially if it's BYU and Bama who are both losing. Predicting this second year of the 12 team playoffs with really good teams getting left out is going to lead to Big 10 getting their way with 24 Team Playoff System. Top 4 teams from each of the Power 4 Conferences getting in automatically then at large for all other spots. Predicting that would lead to elimination of conf championship games. Top 2 teams from each conference get in (based on conf record) then team #3 plays #6 and #4 plays #5 to win the final 2 spots in each conf AQ. Now you've filled 16 spots then it leaves Committee Rankings to select the final 8 spots (get rid of the rule that benefits 5th conf champion, regardless of ranging) to fill out the Top 24. In that scenario, Texas likely hosting a home game for round 1. Top 8 teams all get a bye in round 1. By the week of Dec 20th, were down to 16 teams playing at the home sites of the Top 8 teams. That's a model I could get fired up about. For teams like Texas, who are beginning to peak at end of season, it would give us the chance to prove it on the field in December rather than punishing us for loss against OSU in week 1 (when 4 of the top 5 teams in rankings didn't play a single ranked opponent in non-conf). jmho. Hook em!!
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Derrek Cooper and Jermaine Bishop Jr.
Exciting to see how they both are finishing with insane performances during playoffs and imagine what they will bring to the 40 acres.
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Nicole Auerbach Texas CFP chances
I hope she's right. The committee should count conf championship game losses with even more weight than a non-conf loss in week 1 imo. It's a reflection of how the team is playing against top competition at end of season versus week 1. Also, 2 losses by Miami in October/November to 2 non-ranked opponents should count with much more weight negatively as bad losses than a single loss in early October by Texas to Florida combined with losses to 2 of the top 3 schools in the country. How many teams in the Top 15 would have beaten either Georgia (1 - Bama) or Ohio State (0)? It's interesting when you look at Strength of Schedule on ESPN, no-one in the Top 25 has anywhere near the same difficulty of schedule as UT. Four of the Top five teams in the AP chose to play all cupcakes for non-conf games. What exactly is the CFP committee trying to incentivize? If BYU and Bama both get beaten by 2+ scores, theoretically that should open up a possible path into the playoffs for the Horns. How can they keep Vanderbilt ahead of Texas after the way we handled them head to head and Vanderbilt played the following non-conf schedule: Charleston Southern, Virginia Tech, Utah State and Georgia State? Vanderbilt only played two teams currently in the Top 20 (Alabama and Texas). Vanderbilt got beat soundly by both. Ready to be disappointed but fun to hear the debates for the next week. I'll never forget how f'ng over the top excited I was 2 years ago with the who debate between Georgia, Bama, Florida State and Texas for the final 2 spots into the playoffs. It looked like we may be on the outside, looking in until Bama beat Georgia (the same year we beat Bama). Had Georgia won that game, would the committee have let Florida St (and their perfect record but without starting QB) into the final spot? We'll never know. All that to say that we had some dominoes fall our way 2 years ago on Conf Championship Weekend when UT won our final Big 12 Championship in a blowout game and Bama upset Georgia. It was a beautiful weekend. Let's see how next weekend shakes out. Praying for a lot more dominoes to fall our way again. Hook em!!
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Lots to be grateful. Our Longhorns should be celebrated and appreciated for their grit, character and growth! The future is looking bright.
Reading some of the posts this weekend and wow, there are some crazy extreme perspectives out there. Anyone feeling this morning that the season has been a ‘complete waist’ after likely not making the playoffs (even though we beat OU and A&M by double digits and improved by a mile from Sept to Nov)….. We all have a right to feel what we feel but damn, imo, that doom and gloom outlook is insane. Thinking about the journey the past 5 months (going back to the summer), I couldn’t be more proud to be a Texas Longhorn and a TexasEx (class of 93). Of course it’s disappointing the Horns likely won’t make the playoffs this season. They were the only team to make it the prior two seasons back to back. Even Georgia, Bama and Ohio State all missed the playoffs in one of the past 2 seasons. Here’s how I look at it. We suffered through misery from 2010 to 2022, following a great decade of football under Mac. In my years, Gardere was magical against OU but A&M was typically the tougher team back then. We had up/down years through the 90s. After getting past the Applewhite / Simms drama (and several fun years with big games but always being reminded OU and Stoops owned us), we had an incredible run of seasons from 2003 till 2009 with Vince and Colt. McCoy really came into his own his 3rd year starting (that 2008 season) but there were growing pains for Colt along the way. Then Mac’s 2010 season began the decline and we suffered through his last 3 seasons followed by Charlie Strong’s rotating door of coaches and Tom ‘the binder’ Herman. A 12 year drought that completely sucked. Now, Sark has us recruiting at an elite level YOY, we have a solid / stable coaching staff (possibly needing a couple upgrades) and our team has the athleticism, fight and character consistently each season that has been rare around the 40 acres. Following 2 seasons back to back where we sent the all time 2yr record number of players into the NFL with 25 and being the only team in CFB to make the CFP semi-finals in the past 2 seasons, we have ‘fans’ who are now declaring this season a ‘complete waist’ after going 9-3 and more importantly, a team that showed incredible grit and solid improvement, especially on offense, through the season. That second half against A&M was a thing of beauty by the offense and defense, led by a lot of young players who are likely all coming back next season. Our young players grew up a lot this fall and showed incredible character. Other pre-season Top 10 favorites like Penn State, Clemson, LSU and Florida all collapsed under the pressure and lost their fight after weaknesses were exposed. Texas weaknesses got exposed early in the season, the talking heads all went for blood like sharks in the water. Instead of collapsing under the weight of all the scrutiny, our Horns grew closer/ stronger as a team, fighting to improve one day at a time. Arch showed nothing but class and a fight that we didn’t know he had. How many other 5-star QBs have flamed out over the years and never come close to reaching their hype? Arch pushed through and looked like a completely different player since Miss St magical 4Qtr comeback. I can’t wait to see what he brings next season. We all can agree there were maddening moments on the field this fall (UF and Kentucky top the list). I think about the players and what they must have felt during those games. But our team kept fighting. No quit. And that second half of the A&M game was the culmination….Friday night was a master class in character, grit and coaching adjustments by a team worth celebrating. Lots of reasons to be fired up for our Horns and look forward to what’s ahead. Hook em!! 🐂🧡🤘🏼
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Offensive Play Caller
We just finished a regular season 9-3 with 3 wins against top 10 teams, including double digit wins over OU and A&M. The offense became the strength of the team down the stretch. Prior to this season, we are the only team in CFB who made the top 4 semifinals in college football playoffs each of the past 2 seasons. Think our HC / OC is ok. 🤘🏼🐂🧡
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What is the worst job in P4 Football?
Agree. But as Texas Tech has shown, it only takes one BMD who’s willing to go all-in and a program can turn around much quicker than in the past or as Indiana has shown, hit a homerun on your HC (and overall coaching staff) then step up and pay him big to stay if you want to contend. With the new CFP and likely expansion (16-24 teams), the opportunity is there for any of these programs. Look at Indiana, Vandy, Georgia Tech, Illinois, BYU, Texas Tech. Indiana and Texas Tech are legit contenders and both programs were in the ditch 4 yrs ago. Hook em!! 🧡🤘🏼🐂
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Steve Sarkisian: Arch Manning is 'better and stronger' for how he's handled his 2025 journey
- The Perfect College Playoffs
Which makes regular season and final season rankings more important. The first two rounds should give big home field advantage to the teams that had best regular season imo.- OU is Poverty
DKR capacity at 100,119 latest I’ve seen. In past couple years, we’ve set all-time record for attendance. https://texaslonghorns.com/facilities/dkr-texas-memorial-stadium/1#crowds- The Perfect College Playoffs
I loved having playoff game last year at home against Clemson. Forget random location tier 3 bowl games. Much prefer playing at campus stadiums. Better atmosphere, more fan friendly, imo.- The Perfect College Playoffs
Respectfully disagree. Look at Men’s Basketball (68) and Baseball (64) for references to EOY Championship Tournaments that feel too diluted but still great tournaments. 24 is the right number for football longterm, imo. Makes full season even more relevant for larger number of schools. On same topic…..Old school bowl games are completely dead. Meaningless. They need to die. Everyone playing to win one of Top 8 seeds for first round bye in this 24-team model. Everyone outside top 24, consider having a second tier tournament, rather than bowl games. Similar to NIT. Whether it stays at 12 or grows to 16 or 24, I’m loving the new expanded playoff format that started last season. Hook em!! 🧡🙏🏼🐂- The Perfect College Playoffs
In model proposed, this year…Texas would still have shot at AQ spot with A&M win and likely host round 1 against 3rd or 4th best from Big 12 / ACC.- The Perfect College Playoffs
Liked a lot of Joel Klatt’s take in support of 24 Team format. Gaining support from college commissioners (starting with Big 10). It would make December even better than it already is for CFP imo. A quick summary of points (my twists on top of Klatt’s overall framework). https://youtu.be/FcIHsfqD4YI 1. Eliminate conf championship games. Use regular season conf records (and tie breakers) to name conf champs. 2. Each of Big 4 conferences get 4 AQ based on conference rules (conf record, head to head, common opponents, etc) 3. ND automatic if Top 20 plus 5th Conf Champ. 4. With 18 Teams locked (17 if ND outside Top 20), the remaining 6 spots at large based on CFP committee voting. This year that likely would have meant 4 more spots SEC and 2 more for Big 10. 5. CFP Committee determines seeding with heavy emphasis on SoS, SoR, Quality Wins, (motivates tier1 non conf matchups in Sept) 6. Tuesday following final season games is big announcement of 24-team bracket by CFP Committee. Second Saturday in Dec is first round of playoffs hosted by 9-16. Top 8 teams get a bye. 7. Third weekend of December is Round 2 of CFP hosted by teams ranked 1-8 against winners of round 1. 8. Quarterfinals played at 4 Big Bowl Traditional sites on NewYears (1 game NYE and 3 on NYD). Same as current format. Love it. NewYears back to being spectacular for CFP. 9. semifinals and championship continue as is. Not broken. Why fix? Love this model for lots of reasons, most importantly: 1) Eliminates conf championship games which are becoming more punitive (champs all lost first round CFP last season) 2) Two rounds of home games hosted at universities. Both rounds have predictable locations for advanced planning. 3) Allows for heavier inclusion from SEC / Big 10 with at 6 large but keeps heavy emphasis on conference play with 4 AQ per conf. Also, this model rewards playing big boy game in Sept. This model makes Big12 and ACC more relevant for stability and stop trend of ongoing realignment. 4) Most of all, it rewards teams getting better through the season and keeps lots of teams interested all season. Texas is a good example, could come in at 14, host round 1 but on positive trajectory headed into Dec. Hook em!! 🧡🐂🤘🏼- CFP seeding
#12 2-loss Utah down by 10 with 3 mins to play against KSU last night, we didn’t need that f’ing comeback to happen. Ridiculous int by Kansas St w 49 secs left. Our odds looked a lot better with the Utes out of the pic. Georgia Tech and USC losses help. Expect we’ll be at #15 this Tuesday. We need to beat A&M in convincing beat down fashion (36-20) then we need some serious help over next 2 weeks. Tennessee over Vandy plus either LSU over OU or Auburn over A&M (or both) then we need to jump Utah and BYU based on SOR, SOS, Quality Wins over OU, Vandy, A&M. Would either of those Big12 teams have beaten Georgia or OSU? Of course not. Guranteed to make CFP……..OSU, IU, A&M, Georgia, ND, TTU, Miss, Ore plus ACC Champ and next highest ranked conf champion (that last one is a joke). That means 10 spots are virtually locked. If OU and Bama both win next Saturday over LSU and Auburn, hard to see path for Texas. If OU or Bama get upset (preferably both), we have legit shot at last spot in, especially if Vandy loses to Tenn. Odds of these dominoes falling right feels less than 10% but it will make for fun next 2 weeks. Hook em!! 🙏🏼🤘🏼🐂🧡- Texas vs Dogs score prediction time
Sticking with my prediction Texas - 30 v Geirgia - 20 Hook em!! 🧡🤘🏼🐂- 2026 College Football Playoff Format - What’s your favorite model?
I was initially opposed to idea of 24 team playoff bracket but I’m liking it more and more, thinking about first 2 rounds of games played at college campuses. Joel Klatt did a nice overview a couple weeks back, 1-8 get a first round bye and each host 2nd round. 9-16 host 17-24 in first round. Four major conferences get 4 automatic bids. ND automatic if top 20. 6 committee picks based on rankings, meaning SEC depth likely results in at least another 3-4 teams from SEC for a total of 7-8 each year. Quarterfinals stay same in big bowl games on NYE and 3 games on NYD. Semi-finals and NC stay same. The first two years at 12 teams was good but I love the idea of 24 teams with two rounds of games at college campuses. December and early January has become best time of year for college football, What format others like / prefer? https://youtu.be/FcIHsfqD4YI- 3 Playoff scenarios to watch after this weekend - Has college football ever been better than this?
Agree. After the national media wrote off the Longhorns last month (maybe it was deserved with the way our offense struggled), it would make for an incredible November if our Horns pull off the unexpected upset against UGA. Several fun predictions; Arch throws for 345 yards on 22 for 27 - 4 TDs TD catches by Mosley, Wingo, Tre and Livingstone. Simmons / Hill / Burke combine for 4 1/2 sacks. Julani McDonald and Michael Taafe both have an INT. Niblett has a punt return 40 yards to the Georgia 25 yd line setting up our go ahead TD drive in the 4th qtr. Hook em!! 🧡🐂🤘🏼- 3 Playoff scenarios to watch after this weekend - Has college football ever been better than this?
The Florida loss still stings no matter how we look at it and it only looks worse the further we get into the season. Ok, move on. Texas is climbing and building momentum in Nov as we tackle the toughest 4-game stretch in recent memory. Which scenario will take further shape after this weekend? First, before going there, a quick flashback. it was only 2 1/2 weeks ago that Texas trailed by 17 pts going into the fourth quarter against Miss St before Arch decided it was time to do his thing, the defense went into lockdown and Niblett proved he can again change any game in 8 secs. Texas outscored MSU 31-7 in Q4 and OT, marking the most impressive comeback in the past 20 yrs. We have life!!! Going into the Vandy game, lots of questions for #20 against an impressive #9 Vandy. which version of Texas would show up? Texas dominates Vandy on offense, looks vulnerable on defense without 3 starters in the secondary but begins to look like a team who could get on a roll (if everyone gets healthy), jumping from #20 to #10 over the past 2 weeks. Holy $hi+, a lot has changed since our anemic showing against Kentucky late last month. How can you not love this team and their fight? How can you not love college football and all the different scenarios that could still unfold. 3 scenarios I’m interested to watch on Saturday. All of these assume OU loses to Bama earlier in the day as Mateer hasn’t been the same since his thumb injury. 1) Favorite - Texas goes into Athens and pulls a ‘23 Bama 2.0, looking explosive on offense, overpowering on defense, game changing on ST and pulls off a 30-20 upset win, making it clear that Texas is a legit playoff contender and likely favorite against A&M in 2 1/2 weeks. 2) Most Likely - Similar to the SEC championship, Texas comes out strong and gets off to early lead but Kirby does his thing and Georgia pulls out close win, 27-23. 3) Least Likely - Similar to the beat down we took from Georgia last fall in Austin, our OL gets overwhelmed, Arch is running for his life all night, 4 sacks and we get punished 34-17. In scenario 1, the stage is set for evenly matched game against A&M (Texas favored by 4pts) then on to play Bama in SEC Championship, winning our first SEC championship in year 2. On path to play Ohio State in College Foitball NC for epic rematch, Arch wins ‘player of the game’ as Texas wins it all. Unlikely but still possible and fun thought to imagine, especially given all the early season struggles. In scenario 2, Texas still has very real chance to beat undefeated #3 A&M, giving us 3 high quality wins and enables Texas to sneak into the #11 spot of the playoffs We go on a run early in the playoffs but lose again in the semi-finals but this time it’s Oregon. In scenario 3, we lose to A&M as well, finish 8-4, miss the playoffs and the team is filled with fire to never let that happen again. No one likes how it ended, everyone comes back and 2026 is set for Texas to win it all as a much more seasoned team, ready to explode on Ohio State in Austin next Sept. Which scenario will unfold on Saturday? Lots of other scenarios with other teams also will unfold over the next 3 weeks. Has college football ever been better? Loving it!! Hook em!! 🧡🐂🤘🏼- Early thoughts on No. 11 Texas traveling to No. 5 Georgia
great summary @Jeff Howe! This will be the ultimate re-match following SEC title game loss for Texas last season. OU/Bama a close second but it has to be in Athens this weekend. Sticking with my prediction as everything lining up perfectly. Georgia just dominated team Texas barely escaped. Georgia gonna be feeling itself and Texas bout to bring its most complete game of the season as Sark has finally figured out how to call plays for Arch to maximize and stay upright with this OL. RBs and WRs peaking at right time/. Texas - 30 Georgia - 20 Hook em!!🧡🐂🤘🏼- Arch Manning must keep thriving against pressure when Texas faces Georgia
Great stuff @Jeff Howe!! Fired up for round 3 against Georgia! Hook em! 🤘🏼🐂🧡- Georgia Havoc Stats... Not Good
Thanks @CJ Vogel! Great stuff. I stick with my prediction. This win at Georgia next Saturday tops Bama on the road in 2023 with Texas winning 30-20. The win would be even more special because of all that’s led up to this point and the struggle our Horns have fought through as a team. Between the OU and the Vandy win were 2 incredible ‘culture wins’ that showed true Texas Fight. If we upset #5 Georgia with a dominating 10pt win on the road, it becomes clear, Texas is on the rise and peaking at the right time!! A&M won’t know what hit em in 3 weeks. Hook em!! 🤘🏼🐂🧡- Score prediction time
Being back home, following 2 ‘culture wins’ against the bottom of the SEC, it feels like we’re due for a big win against top 10 Vandy. Texas - 31 Vandy - 20- This season
Good to know Sark has lost your trust and you’ve decided it’s a waist of time to watch our Texas Horns. Does that mean you’re finished posting for a while? Ridiculous, Lol, 😂😂😂😂 - The Perfect College Playoffs
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