It’s basically a pick em in either scenario.    In this model, Texas would be 1.5pt favorite against Oregon and a 1.5pt dog against the Buckeyes.

https://www.on3.com/pro/news/college-football-playoff-odds-early-point-spreads-released-on-potential-cfp-semifinal-matchups/

Edited December 24, 20241 yr by Bevo92

IF Texas beat ASU…I don’t see them as a favorite against Oregon or Ohio State

Pretty interesting. Close game expected against either. 

1 game at a time....old coach in me hates getting ahead of ourselves

2 hours ago, WG Carter said:

1 game at a time....old coach in me hates getting ahead of ourselves

Agree.   Had the same feeling after I posted.  

4 hours ago, WG Carter said:

1 game at a time....old coach in me hates getting ahead of ourselves

Right there with you as a former coach. 

Me too.💯

8 hours ago, WG Carter said:

1 game at a time....old coach in me hates getting ahead of ourselves

💯

It's interesting that Texas is favored to win it all on some sites but isn't favored to win the Cotton Bowl against whoever... this would be a home adjacent game for the Horns! It's like Atlanta for Georgia.  Needless to say,  it's schizophrenic to predict for us overall and against near term in our own backyard.  Bevo will dump on that. And The Horns will stomp on that. Hook Em!

16 hours ago, WG Carter said:

1 game at a time....old coach in me hates getting ahead of ourselves

Yeah, we’re filling up on the cheese.

At this point in my life, I see the possibilities for each side and don't expect anything. That said, if you're not involved, it does. not. matter. Speculation makes the sports world go 'round.

2 hours ago, David Edwards said:

It's interesting that Texas is favored to win it all on some sites but isn't favored to win the Cotton Bowl against whoever...

It's because right now odds makers have to predict a trifecta - three winning games - and Texas' first game is by far the easiest (per odds).  Once we get down to four teams then Texas will probably have 2nd or 3rd best odds.

Mathematical example with made up % of winning - assume Texas has 70% odds against ASU, 45% against OSU/Oregon winner, 50% against say Notre Dame or Georgia.  Multiply those out and .7 * .45 * .5 = 15.75% chance.

Assume OSU v Oregon is 50/50, winner is 55% fav against UT, final is 50-50 (I'm making these up for an example but you get the point), so .5 * .55 * .5 = 13.75%.  So Texas has better odds among 8 teams needing to win 3 games but would have lower odds once it gets to four teams and 2 games.

Basically because we have the easiest path in the first game we have better odds to win 3 times, but after odds are recalculated for four teams then the winner of OSU/UO game has .55 * .5 odds (27.5%) and our odds drop to 22.5% using these numbers.

1 hour ago, BobInHouston said:

At this point in my life, I see the possibilities for each side and don't expect anything. That said, if you're not involved, it does. not. matter. Speculation makes the sports world go 'round.

Yeah. We're not playing or coaching.