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What does Texas have to do to make the NCAA Tournament after win at Texas Tech?

By Gerry Hamilton

· 3366 views

What does Texas have to do to make the NCAA Tournament? 

The Texas Longhorns once again ripped out the hearts of a moblike Texas Tech fan base Tuesday night. The Longhorns responded from one rough day at Kansas with an 81-69 win at Texas Tech Tuesday night in a game that wasn't as close as the final score indicated. 

Texas (18-10, 7-8) has a strong NCAA Resume currently, and is firmly in the Big Dance after Tuesday night.  

OnTexasFootball takes a look ahead, and the scenarios for Texas to continue to be comfortably in the tourney.

Texas’ Remaining Regular Season Schedule
3/2 Oklahoma State 
3/4 @ No. 12 Baylor 
3/9 No. 25 Oklahoma 

NCAA Men’s Basketball NET Rankings (Feb. 28)
Texas is No. 33 in NCAA NET after the win at Texas Tech. The Horns moved up seven spots from No. 40.

The Longhorns are 5-7 in Quad 1 games, 2-2 vs. Quad 2, 2-1 vs. Quad 3 and 9-0 vs. Quad 4. 

Quad 1 games remaining for the Longhorns:
No. 14 @ Baylor 

Quad 2 game remaining:
No. 40 Oklahoma 

Quad 3 games remaining:
No. 113 Oklahoma State 

T-Rank 
Texas is No. 23 in Bart Torvik’s rankings after Tuesday night.

2024 Pomeroy College Basketball Ratings
Texas checks in at No. 28 after the win at Texas Tech.

What it means for Texas

The Longhorns are comfortably in the NCAA Tournament after Tuesday nights win. The resume continues to be aided by five Quad 1 wins and four Big 12 road wins. Only 14 teams in all of college basketball have more Quad 1 wins than Texas, and one of those is not in a Power 5 conference. 

While Strength of Schedule as a whole may not carry as much weight as it used to, the Longhorns have played a top 25 ranked schedule and will likely end up with a scheduled ranked in the 17-20 area. Texas' Big 12 schedule will carry a lot of weight when it comes to getting in the tournament, and seeding. 

Most years, a sub .500 conference record would not get you into the Field of 68. With the monster level Big 12 Conference in 2023-24, Texas would get in at 8-10. There currently nine Big 12 teams projected to get in the Big Dance.

Texas and seeding:

Scenario 1: 20-11, 9-9 is likely a 7 seed headed into Big 12 Tournament

Scenario 2: 19-12, 8-10 would likely be a 8-9 seed headed into Big 12 Tournament 

Scenario 3: 18-13, 7-11 would send the Horns to the NIT without a run in the Big 12 Tournament. That would mean an 0-3 finish to the regular season, which is highly unlikely. 

Right now, I do not see a scenario where Texas is 21-10 and 10-8 to finish the regular season. That would mean winning the last four games (Texas Tech starting the streak), including at Baylor on Monday.  Texas has not shown that consistent type of stretch this season over talent neutralized stretches. The Longhorns haven't won three Big 12 games in a row this season. 

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    First Round Pick

    Neil Leininger

    Supporters
    39 minutes ago, Gerry Hamilton said:

    Texas hasn't won more than two Big 12 games in a row this season. I would put the chances of winning four in a row to end the regular season at 10-15%. 

    Maybe I'll be proven wrong!

    With how this team has played lately, they would probably lose to OSU and then go beat Baylor. I think 10-8 is doable now, Baylor doesn't play great defense and is missing a key rotational player. They also play KU on Saturday at home then have the quick turnaround on Monday.

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    First Round Pick

    Derek Handler

    Members

    Hard to be excited when we all know if Beard was here we'd be discussing if we are a 1 or 2 seed...  

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    • Freshman

    Randy Crownover

    Members

    Glad to slap TT hard. Almost done with the weak tacos.

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    • First Round Pick

    CoachBobbyFinstock

    Supporters

    Hoping for 20-11 with us finally defending our home turf.

    Baylor is house money to me. 

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    • First Round Pick

    Neil Leininger

    Supporters
    28 minutes ago, Derek Handler said:

    Hard to be excited when we all know if Beard was here we'd be discussing if we are a 1 or 2 seed...  

    He's never gotten a seed that high, so probably not.

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    • Freshman

    Hermanator

    Members
    9 hours ago, Red Five said:

    I'm still on the fence about that ejection. But it was worth it for the resulting clown show we got. Any time the opposing coach has to get on the mic, that's fun. 

    It was definitely a flagrant but I can see the argument over a 1 or 2. It's right in that borderline where I can see either way being justified. They're running after the ball and it's a shoulder check as opposed to the blatant elbows and punches we've seen this year, but at the same time he's not going for the ball and intentionally checking him into the table. Flagrant, but not really looking to injure. 

    I have a feeling that play doesn't happen against a BYU or even TCU. That seemed to be a shot moreso to Joey McGuire's mouth as well as Yormark than to the tech player. 

    Joey needs to retire the pep talks to the fans. It got his ass handed to him by 50 in Austin and now he's getting their basketball team destroyed at home.

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    • Lifetime Longhorn

    Gerry Hamilton

    Moderators
    • Moderators

    The 2023 Sweet 16 ... crazy how many of the teams are either out of 2024 tournament or on bubble right now ...

    Miami (Fla) - out

    Kansas State - out 

    Xavier - out 

    Arkansas - out 

    UCLA - out 

    Michigan State - bubble

    Gonzaga - bubble 

    Princeton - maybe

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    • Lifetime Longhorn

    NothinButDaHorns34

    Supporters

    Unfortunately this program will be average at best under terry. I don’t blame CDC for the hire, But his head coaching record don’t lie. 

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    Lifetime Longhorn

    thatdude2

    Supporters

    Texas will not lose again

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    • Lifetime Longhorn

    Gerry Hamilton

    Moderators
    • Moderators
    1 hour ago, thatdude2 said:

    Texas will not lose again

    Would be a hell of a finish for a very inconsistent team to this point. As small as the chance, would make for a different look headed into March Madness ... Texas would be a 7/6 seed if they won out to end regular season. 

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    • First Round Pick

    Red Five

    Supporters
    14 hours ago, Gerry Hamilton said:

    UCLA - out 

    What a weird year it's been for that school. 

    I visited their campus waaaay back when I was in high school, and ever since it's always amazed me that they don't dominate in every sport. (Pepperdine's campus wasn't too shabby either... practically hanging over the Pacific ocean.)

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    • Lifetime Longhorn

    Gerry Hamilton

    Moderators
    • Moderators
    2 hours ago, Red Five said:

    What a weird year it's been for that school. 

    I visited their campus waaaay back when I was in high school, and ever since it's always amazed me that they don't dominate in every sport. (Pepperdine's campus wasn't too shabby either... practically hanging over the Pacific ocean.)

    I was there last summer ... amazing campus and area. But so expensive to be a college student too. 

    Mick Cronin got hit with some losses in portal recruiting that impacted this season IMO

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    • Redshirt

    Hookem97

    Members
    On 2/28/2024 at 7:06 AM, Gerry Hamilton said:

     

    I'm just going to throw this out there because I don't think anybody has lol. I think Brock was actually making or trying to make a basketball play by diving & saving the ball from going out of bounds. I don't think he knew or thought #5 was right there. It looked way worse than it did & 5 got his feelings hurt....keep it mind horns were up 25 at this point....a lot of frustration from all Tech players. 

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    • Lifetime Longhorn

    Gerry Hamilton

    Moderators
    • Moderators
    40 minutes ago, Hookem97 said:

    I'm just going to throw this out there because I don't think anybody has lol. I think Brock was actually making or trying to make a basketball play by diving & saving the ball from going out of bounds. I don't think he knew or thought #5 was right there. It looked way worse than it did & 5 got his feelings hurt....keep it mind horns were up 25 at this point....a lot of frustration from all Tech players. 

    I don't necessarily disagree with you. He did both lol 

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    First Round Pick

    Red Five

    Supporters

    It looked to me like at the last second Brock realized he was about to get run over, and did a preemptive shoulder check. I would not have called that a flagrant 2. To me that's reserved for punching dudes in the face, taking guys' legs out while they're in the air, etc.

     

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    Redshirt

    Hookem97

    Members
    1 minute ago, Red Five said:

    It looked to me like at the last second Brock realized he was about to get run over, and did a preemptive shoulder check. I would not have called that a flagrant 2. To me that's reserved for punching dudes in the face, taking guys' legs out while they're in the air, etc.

     

    I'm with you on that @Red Five definitely didn't perform any Draymond Green moves lol. 

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