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Snap Judgments: Texas defies the odds and saves its season with a 45-38 overtime win over Mississippi State

When Davon Booth reeled in a shovel pass from Blake Shapen and weaved through a beleaguered Texas defense for a 62-yard touchdown, which gave Mississippi State a 38-21 lead with 12:29 to go in the fourth quarter of Saturday’s game in Starkville, I thought about 2010.

Mack Brown’s program carried the weight of a BCS title game loss to Alabama into a season that began with sky-high expectations. Will Muschamp’s defense did what it could to keep the Longhorns afloat, but Greg Davis' listless offense turned the football over enough that the dam eventually broke.

Fifteen years later, the fate of Steve Sarkisian’s club was all but sealed.

The 2010 squad went from a 13-1 juggernaut in 2009 to a 5-7 dumpster fire. Even with a win over Oklahoma sandwiched between road losses to Ohio State and Florida, and last Saturday's 16-13 overtime road win over Kentucky, it felt like the 2025 group was headed in the same direction.

The offense consistently shooting itself in the foot allowed the defense, which was gashed time and again by the Bulldogs, to be overexposed.

Nevertheless, Deonte Anderson’s personal foul penalty for roughing Arch Manning on a failed fourth-and-1 on the ensuing possession after Booth’s touchdown changed everything.

With the drive still alive, Manning connected with Emmett Mosley V for a 21-yard touchdown with 9:34 left in regulation, kickstarting a run of 31 unanswered points. Manning went 12-for-20 for 169 yards and two touchdowns in the fourth quarter, persevering through another game in which he was under constant pressure and got little to no relief from a virtually non-existent running game (72 net yards on 32 carries, including the five times Manning was sacked, which lost a total of 29 yards).

Less than two minutes after Mason Shipley made it a 10-point game with a 26-yard field goal, Ryan Niblett took advantage of Ethan Pulliam's booming 57-yard punt. Pulliam outkicked his coverage down the middle of the field, paving the way for Niblett's game-tying 79-yard touchdown.

The defense, as it did in last Saturday’s overtime victory over the Wildcats in Lexington, allowed only one first down after the Shapen-to-Booth touchdown, ending a miraculous 45-38 triumph on Ethan Burke’s fourth-and-20 walk-off sack in overtime. The stop came on the heels of Matthew Caldwell making the most of his lone pass attempt, relieving an injured Manning and lofting a 10-yard touchdown to Mosley on second-and-8 in overtime.

Texas (6-2, 3-1 SEC) defied logic by rallying from 17 points down in the fourth quarter to win. The Longhorns were dead in the water. The on-field meltdown coming on the same day that off-field news surrounding Sarkisian’s future on the Forty Acres dominated the pregame chatter ahead of the team’s fourth consecutive game away from Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium created a perfect storm for a program to be in complete and utter turmoil at the final gun.

Instead, Sarkisian and the staff will get ready for Texas to welcome a good Vanderbilt team to town next Saturday with all of the team’s season-long goals on the table.

The Longhorns will head home from Starkville with blemishes that could prevent them from reaching their preferred destination. Chief among them is the health of Manning, who had to be helped off the field after taking a shot at the end of a 13-yard run on the first play of overtime, abruptly ending a day in which he threw for 346 yards and accounted for four touchdowns (three passing and one rushing).

Nevertheless, Texas is done with a month’s worth of football games played away from home with only one SEC loss on the ledger. Unlike the 2010 Longhorns, Sarkisian’s club is bowl eligible and had enough about it to escape two road games with a pair of too-close-for-comfort victories.

That’s the bottom line. Texas won back-to-back overtime road games it had little to no business winning.

It remains to be seen what becomes of a season that started with talk of a return to the College Football Playoff and a possible national championship run. For now, Longhorn fans should take comfort in the fact that this team, as flawed as it is, had enough about it to pull out two wins that could’ve easily gone the other way.

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Sanka Decaf

Supporters

Let’s not forget that this young team just went on the road.  In the SEC. For a month. Won 3 of 4 against teams that were good but beatable. Sure, we all wanted to see us win 4 and looking like a seasoned team doing it. But, they won 3 of 4. That’s a tough stretch for any team. Doesn’t excuse their big problems on offense, but there’s a difficulty factor that makes this survive and advance impressive. 

AusMOJO

Members
7 hours ago, DanielOnorato said:

Lance Jackson is a force. Januarys gap discipline is phenomenal. Beautiful finish to an ugly win.

Speaks well to the future of the DL. I'm kinda excited to see what the DL guys look like next year Charles, Sharma and J.Terry. Paired with January, Watson and possibly Johnson if he sticks around. 

AusMOJO

Members
59 minutes ago, SchoolColors said:

Sarkisian needs to call every game remaining like it is the 4th quarter of Miss St. he’s so much better as a play caller and moving the ball when he does that instead of trying to force his scheme on the team.  
 

Interesting that the same OL looked like they did in the 4th vs the other 3 quarters when the playbook was simplified to quick hitters and spread out offense. It’s seemed like running easy concepts and blocking schemes allows the players to play more stuff.

 

This is my problem, because he would do similar with Ewers and it worked really well. Maybe his scheme isn't that great or doesn't work for this team? Whatever it is, he needs to do more of that type of stuff and help this team. 

GetHooked

Members
14 hours ago, Jeff Howe said:

Chief among them is the health of Manning, who had to be helped off the field after taking a shot at the end of a 13-yard run on the first play of overtime

Jeff, when I looked at the replay of Manning getting tackled, I immediately thought that was targeting.  It was clearly helmet-to-helmet contact.  He launched head first into Manning.

When I first saw the play, it didn't see it.  When I saw the replay, I was surprised it wasn't called. (Or at least reviewed)

Oldest Horn

Supporters
3 minutes ago, GetHooked said:

Jeff, when I looked at the replay of Manning getting tackled, I immediately thought that was targeting.  It was clearly helmet-to-helmet contact.  He launched head first into Manning.

When I first saw the play, it didn't see it.  When I saw the replay, I was surprised it wasn't called. (Or at least reviewed)

I saw it as a quick hitting play. The defender didn’t lead with the crown. Taaffe would’ve been thrown out of several games had this guy gotten tossed under that standard. 

GetHooked

Members
1 minute ago, Oldest Horn said:

I saw it as a quick hitting play. The defender didn’t lead with the crown. Taaffe would’ve been thrown out of several games had this guy gotten tossed under that standard. 

That's fair.  I wasn't sure.  The play looked fine.  The replay made me wonder but it was mostly just a football play.  

charlie990

Supporters

Last night's victory was the most unlikely W in at least a decade for the Longhorns. Data from collegefootballdata showed the horns with a brief 0.0% chance of winning when the roughing the passer was called on 4th down in the 4th quarter. Some other fun games to relive here including that unlikely comeback against tech in 2020. 

ZC3xq-top-10-most-unlikely-texas-victories-nbsp-.thumb.png.93806676c244eeda112552b67d18f197.png 

TheContractor12

Supporters
16 hours ago, Threepacballer said:

Never thought MS could score that many points against our defense. What happened? Lebby figuring us out? Taafe? Wrong coverages? 

our pass D has been below avg all year, we just havent paid of it yet and still havent be MSU dropped 8+ passes. they catch any of the 2 and dont win yesterday. there are many holes in the back 7. 

Oldest Horn

Supporters
2 minutes ago, TheContractor12 said:

our pass D has been below avg all year, we just havent paid of it yet and still havent be MSU dropped 8+ passes. they catch any of the 2 and dont win yesterday. there are many holes in the back 7. 

What I saw was Miss St using play action far more effectively than prior teams we faced. 

TheContractor12

Supporters
15 hours ago, Oldest Horn said:

Didn’t our mistakes give Miss St their lead?

if by not blocking and catching and throwing the ball well = mistakes yes. 

MSU dropped a ton of catchable balls, Wingo dropped a TD on a slant too. MSU made more plays than we did until the 4thQ. We made more mistakes until the 4thQ. 

the 4th and 1 roughing was MSU biggest mistake. 

TheContractor12

Supporters
6 hours ago, SchoolColors said:

Even with Taffee the back end concepts are meshing well with the front 7. Our situational alignments are also absolutely terrible. For example it is say 3rd and 3 and we have DBs playing 8-10 yards off receivers. That’s easy taking for offense. This same alignments and not knocking receivers off their timing doesn’t allow our front 7 to get home as often as they should be  

 

there were many times in the last 2 games where both slot WRs were just wide fing open. alignment has been really bad at times. 

watty7796

Members

This was likely Mannings 2nd concussion in 2 seasons.  I have concern for the young mans health long term.  What makes him unique is his abilty to scramble and create with his legs but he has to learn to get down to keep his career going.  Love the toughness but sometimes the greater part of the sport is the ability to make it through the season.

SchoolColors

Members
7 minutes ago, watty7796 said:

This was likely Mannings 2nd concussion in 2 seasons.  I have concern for the young mans health long term.  What makes him unique is his abilty to scramble and create with his legs but he has to learn to get down to keep his career going.  Love the toughness but sometimes the greater part of the sport is the ability to make it through the season.

For sure his second this year if you include the Ohio St playoff game. 

SuperDave0805

Supporters
16 hours ago, Jeff Howe said:

 

 

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  • Moderators
54 minutes ago, charlie990 said:

Last night's victory was the most unlikely W in at least a decade for the Longhorns. Data from collegefootballdata showed the horns with a brief 0.0% chance of winning when the roughing the passer was called on 4th down in the 4th quarter. Some other fun games to relive here including that unlikely comeback against tech in 2020. 

ZC3xq-top-10-most-unlikely-texas-victories-nbsp-.thumb.png.93806676c244eeda112552b67d18f197.png 

Some insane games on this list, some of which shortened my lifespan.

.45s

Members

Great comeback for the reasons described above.  But it is sad that UT had to make such a comeback against a team like Mississippi State.

Phil Norton

Members
9 hours ago, GetHooked said:

Jeff, when I looked at the replay of Manning getting tackled, I immediately thought that was targeting.  It was clearly helmet-to-helmet contact.  He launched head first into Manning.

When I first saw the play, it didn't see it.  When I saw the replay, I was surprised it wasn't called. (Or at least reviewed)

 

Phil Norton

Members

I recorded the game and rewatched the Manning injury play and I too was surprised to see helmet to helmet contact before his head then bounced off the ground.  Not sure but at least potentially targeting.  Gethooked is 100% correct! 

Califashorn75

Supporters

I just saw the 4th quarter again. How did we win that game?.

AusMOJO

Members
27 minutes ago, Califashorn75 said:

I just saw the 4th quarter again. How did we win that game?.

Lebby is still trying to figure that one out lol. 

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