Duke wins ACC, Troy wins Sun Belt. Icing on cake if Boise wins MWC. Duke would be 8-5 and the others 9-4 vying for final auto bid. Then what if BYU wins Big 12 and UGA wins SEC? Bama gets left out? This is the CFP breaker scenario. SEC and Big 10 would form their own playoff moving forward. 

Edited November 30, 2025Nov 30 by Nostradaveyus

18 minutes ago, Nostradaveyus said:

Duke wins ACC, Troy wins Sun Belt. Icing on cake if Boise wins MWC. Duke would be 8-5 and the others 9-4 vying for final auto bid. Then what if BYU wins Big 12 and UGA wins SEC? Bama gets left out? This is the CFP breaker scenario. SEC and Big 10 would form their own playoff moving forward. 

If Duke wins the most likely scenario is James Madison(Sun Belt) and UNT/Tulane winner(AAC) get the auto bids.

5 minutes ago, SchoolColors said:

If Duke wins the most likely scenario is James Madison(Sun Belt) and UNT/Tulane winner(AAC) get the auto bids.

And if Troy wins Sun Belt, it goes to UNLV if they win MWC. But if Boise wins MWC, then it’s between Duke, Troy and Boise. 

Really hoping James Madison wins it all

15 minutes ago, SchoolColors said:

If Duke wins the most likely scenario is James Madison(Sun Belt) and UNT/Tulane winner(AAC) get the auto bids.

For a minute I thought I was reading the Onion instead of OTF. Wild!

However it shakes out,  UNT travelling to Aggie and pulling an App State would be all time epic.

If BYU wins the Big 12, Alabama will get bumped out of the #10 spot (and therefore, out of the playoffs).  Tech will still get in as an at-large, likely in the #9 or #10 spot.

If Duke wins the ACC, the ACC will get ZERO teams into the playoffs.  UNT, Tulane, and James Madison are all project to be ranked higher than Duke, and two of these 3 schools would get the final two auto-spots and be placed at #11 and #12 in the playoff seeding.

Troy State and Boise State do not have a shot here, regardless of outcomes.